The King is Dead!?!?!?!
Quick pop quiz for ya': who was the most dominant hitter, starting pitcher, and closer last year? If you said Pujols, Santana, and Lidge, quiet yourself. The answer I was looking for is Bonds, Johnson, and Gagne. Yes, a scant 9 months ago Barry was possibly the most feared hitter of all time, Johnson was historically good for a historically bad team, and Gagne in the 9th was as sure a thing as you could find in all of sports.
Flash forward to the present, however, and you are left with three Airbus sized alabatrosses. What is an owner to do?
Since I first conceived this topic, Gagne has made 1/3 of the discussion moot by announcing that he is undergoing season-ending surgery. As a result, I'm going to take that rare step of offering a 100% guaranteed suggestion: drop him and hope that whoever owned Yhency Brazoban quick-trigger released him when he stopped closing. While you're at it, you might want to also work hard at forgetting what round you drafted Gagne, or who you traded for him, or who you let go to keep him. To read more about what to do with Gagne, check out Dennis' post - Gagne... So Now What?
As for the other two, good luck getting a straight answer from me. Chemicals be damned, Bonds is a superior enough hitter that it is a near-certainty that he will produce at a high level within a short period of his return (though a week or two of adjustment is to be expected). When that will be, however, is impossible to tell. Your guess is as good as mine is as good as the Giants front office's. For Bonds owners, the only advice I can give is to evaluate your roster before making any moves. If you are relatively healthy and do not need the roster spot, by all means, hold onto him. The potential reward far outweighs the minor inconvenience. With so many injuries around the majors, however, DL spots are growing more and more valuable, and keeping someone who is probably 50/50 to play this year is a giant risk. If your players are dropping like the proverbial flies, though, it is time to look into trading him. Market value is probably all but impossible, but if you get any sort of respectable offer, I recommend pulling the trigger. Could you get burned and look like a humungous idiot? Yes, but you could also be getting valuable players and roster flexibility for a guy who won't even play.
Then there's the big guy. I was so sure Johnson was going to be fine. He's older now, which means a longer adjustment period at the beginning of the year, plus he didn't have the Arizona heat to keep him loose in April and May. Once the velocity came back though, I figured the command and the dominance would follow in short order, and his start last week seemed to bear that out. But then he all but died on the mound against Tampa last night, offering up a start that ranks among the worst of his career. For those not from the area, let me assure you: last night was NOT a cold New York night. It was hot, it was humid, and it was filled with hard hit baseballs. I think it may be time to face the fact that Johnson is not going to dominate consistently this month, and maybe not this year. My advice? Treat Johnson like any other boom-or-bust starter and find someone who's convinced he's one start away from putting it all together. I wouldn't accept a significantly below-market offer for him like I might with Bonds, but I also would not consider him the untradeable object he was just a few months ago.
Flash forward to the present, however, and you are left with three Airbus sized alabatrosses. What is an owner to do?
Since I first conceived this topic, Gagne has made 1/3 of the discussion moot by announcing that he is undergoing season-ending surgery. As a result, I'm going to take that rare step of offering a 100% guaranteed suggestion: drop him and hope that whoever owned Yhency Brazoban quick-trigger released him when he stopped closing. While you're at it, you might want to also work hard at forgetting what round you drafted Gagne, or who you traded for him, or who you let go to keep him. To read more about what to do with Gagne, check out Dennis' post - Gagne... So Now What?
As for the other two, good luck getting a straight answer from me. Chemicals be damned, Bonds is a superior enough hitter that it is a near-certainty that he will produce at a high level within a short period of his return (though a week or two of adjustment is to be expected). When that will be, however, is impossible to tell. Your guess is as good as mine is as good as the Giants front office's. For Bonds owners, the only advice I can give is to evaluate your roster before making any moves. If you are relatively healthy and do not need the roster spot, by all means, hold onto him. The potential reward far outweighs the minor inconvenience. With so many injuries around the majors, however, DL spots are growing more and more valuable, and keeping someone who is probably 50/50 to play this year is a giant risk. If your players are dropping like the proverbial flies, though, it is time to look into trading him. Market value is probably all but impossible, but if you get any sort of respectable offer, I recommend pulling the trigger. Could you get burned and look like a humungous idiot? Yes, but you could also be getting valuable players and roster flexibility for a guy who won't even play.
Then there's the big guy. I was so sure Johnson was going to be fine. He's older now, which means a longer adjustment period at the beginning of the year, plus he didn't have the Arizona heat to keep him loose in April and May. Once the velocity came back though, I figured the command and the dominance would follow in short order, and his start last week seemed to bear that out. But then he all but died on the mound against Tampa last night, offering up a start that ranks among the worst of his career. For those not from the area, let me assure you: last night was NOT a cold New York night. It was hot, it was humid, and it was filled with hard hit baseballs. I think it may be time to face the fact that Johnson is not going to dominate consistently this month, and maybe not this year. My advice? Treat Johnson like any other boom-or-bust starter and find someone who's convinced he's one start away from putting it all together. I wouldn't accept a significantly below-market offer for him like I might with Bonds, but I also would not consider him the untradeable object he was just a few months ago.
posted by skygoblue @ 2:27 PM
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