So You Drafted a Stiff...(part 1)
Before the season began in one of my leagues, a competitor and I made the rare trade in which both sides got a player they really wanted. He got Hideki Matsui, I got Oliver Perez, and everyone was happy. Flash forward a few months and Hideki was putting up Kaz numbers, while Perez appeared to have lost all semblance of command. It looked like a classic case of garbage in, garbage out.
In the past few weeks, things have started looking up for both. Perez has started throwing like he did last year, when he was the hottest young lefty not named Johan Santana, and Matsui just wrapped up a 5 for 11 series with 2 HR (including one off Perez. d’oh!). The mixed-metaphor question remains, however, whether they’ve righted the ship or are simply in the eye of the hurricane. With that in mind, I’m going to look at 12 players who haven’t produced to preseason expectations, 6 hitters this week and 6 pitchers next week, beginning with the aforementioned Matsui.
Hideki Matsui- Last year Hideki hit 31 HR. As of June 13th this year, he had 4. Where’s the beef? Preseason, it was trendy to predict that Matsui’s jump from 16 to 31 HR was an indicator of bigger things to come, but seeing plenty of Yankees games, I disagreed. Matsui has decent power, but he does not have a classic power swing and tends to slump when he tries to use one. Expect his recent surge to continue, but don’t look for a massive second half turnaround. Prediction: .290/24/110
Juan Pierre- When I drafted this year, I made Carl Crawford a priority. Besides being a premier base-stealer, he also has burgeoning power potential, as evidenced by his 46 extra-base hits last year. It seems that Pierre also noticed this, and has tried to duplicate it, but as Yogi said, don’t copy what you can’t imitate. As Florida’s lineup comes around, Pierre’s runs will come more frequently, but until he remembers that he’s a single hitter, .300 will continue to be a long way off, and SBs and R will be his only contribution to your lineup. Prediction: .275/105 R/45 SB
Jim Thome- Thome did do a stint on the DL, but as anyone who drafted him knows, he’s been pretty much worthless when he has played. Injury rust or sudden aging? I saw a Baseball Tonight where they suggested the latter, but I think Thome will be fine. He’s still hitting below his weight with only 5 HR, but he looked like the old Thome (as opposed to an old Thome) in a recent 5 game stretch, accumulating 6 H, 2 HR, and 5 RBI. Thome has always been the type of hitter who goes on homer binges, and his long-awaited first one of the season should be coming any week now. It’s too late to put up his standard 40+, but try and buy low and look for a big second half. Prediction: .260/32/90
Aaron Boone- A preseason favorite for comeback player of the year, Boone is not only worse than he was last year, but he’s been one of the most ineffective hitters in the major leagues. Will he finish below .200? No, he’s more talented than that. Will he meet those expectations of a big comeback season? Sorry, but no, and I’m not really sure why they were there to begin with. Boone is mediocre and if you look at his career stats, he pretty much always has been. Seems like a good guy and gave me the thrill of a sporting life (yeah, I was there) but if he’s on your roster he’s wasting space. Prediction: .235/16/65
Mike Lowell- Every year, Lowell starts out red hot before wilting horribly in the Florida heat. Fortunately, he will not have a big fall-off this summer. Unfortunately, that’s because he’s been atrocious so far this year. Three HR? Seriously? The good news is that Lowell has boosted his average 30 points in the month of June, but the inevitable bad news is that he’s only up to .237. Some improvement should be coming for a guy who went .293/28/85 last year, if only because it seems impossible for a hitter to go that bad that quick. Still, he’s looked so bad this year I just can’t see a big time turn around. If he can avoid falling off the table again, Lowell’s worth a look as an injury-replacement, but if he’s your starter you need to upgrade. Prediction: .255/16/75
Victor Martinez- After a .283/23/108 season at age 27 last year, Martinez was the first catcher taken in some drafts this year. Now he's keeping teammate Aaron Boone company in terrible-dom at .209/6/21. Unlike Boone, however, I do not think Martinez is a lost cause. A lot of young hitters experience a swoon after their initial success but make adjustments and bounce back. Will the bounce back be this year or next? Tough call. I look for Martinez to continue puttering along until the break and then rebound with a strong second half. If he’s your #1, I suggest keeping him around but bringing in a placeholder like Toby Hall to keep him from hurting your numbers too much. Prediction: .260/17/75
In the past few weeks, things have started looking up for both. Perez has started throwing like he did last year, when he was the hottest young lefty not named Johan Santana, and Matsui just wrapped up a 5 for 11 series with 2 HR (including one off Perez. d’oh!). The mixed-metaphor question remains, however, whether they’ve righted the ship or are simply in the eye of the hurricane. With that in mind, I’m going to look at 12 players who haven’t produced to preseason expectations, 6 hitters this week and 6 pitchers next week, beginning with the aforementioned Matsui.
Hideki Matsui- Last year Hideki hit 31 HR. As of June 13th this year, he had 4. Where’s the beef? Preseason, it was trendy to predict that Matsui’s jump from 16 to 31 HR was an indicator of bigger things to come, but seeing plenty of Yankees games, I disagreed. Matsui has decent power, but he does not have a classic power swing and tends to slump when he tries to use one. Expect his recent surge to continue, but don’t look for a massive second half turnaround. Prediction: .290/24/110
Juan Pierre- When I drafted this year, I made Carl Crawford a priority. Besides being a premier base-stealer, he also has burgeoning power potential, as evidenced by his 46 extra-base hits last year. It seems that Pierre also noticed this, and has tried to duplicate it, but as Yogi said, don’t copy what you can’t imitate. As Florida’s lineup comes around, Pierre’s runs will come more frequently, but until he remembers that he’s a single hitter, .300 will continue to be a long way off, and SBs and R will be his only contribution to your lineup. Prediction: .275/105 R/45 SB
Jim Thome- Thome did do a stint on the DL, but as anyone who drafted him knows, he’s been pretty much worthless when he has played. Injury rust or sudden aging? I saw a Baseball Tonight where they suggested the latter, but I think Thome will be fine. He’s still hitting below his weight with only 5 HR, but he looked like the old Thome (as opposed to an old Thome) in a recent 5 game stretch, accumulating 6 H, 2 HR, and 5 RBI. Thome has always been the type of hitter who goes on homer binges, and his long-awaited first one of the season should be coming any week now. It’s too late to put up his standard 40+, but try and buy low and look for a big second half. Prediction: .260/32/90
Aaron Boone- A preseason favorite for comeback player of the year, Boone is not only worse than he was last year, but he’s been one of the most ineffective hitters in the major leagues. Will he finish below .200? No, he’s more talented than that. Will he meet those expectations of a big comeback season? Sorry, but no, and I’m not really sure why they were there to begin with. Boone is mediocre and if you look at his career stats, he pretty much always has been. Seems like a good guy and gave me the thrill of a sporting life (yeah, I was there) but if he’s on your roster he’s wasting space. Prediction: .235/16/65
Mike Lowell- Every year, Lowell starts out red hot before wilting horribly in the Florida heat. Fortunately, he will not have a big fall-off this summer. Unfortunately, that’s because he’s been atrocious so far this year. Three HR? Seriously? The good news is that Lowell has boosted his average 30 points in the month of June, but the inevitable bad news is that he’s only up to .237. Some improvement should be coming for a guy who went .293/28/85 last year, if only because it seems impossible for a hitter to go that bad that quick. Still, he’s looked so bad this year I just can’t see a big time turn around. If he can avoid falling off the table again, Lowell’s worth a look as an injury-replacement, but if he’s your starter you need to upgrade. Prediction: .255/16/75
Victor Martinez- After a .283/23/108 season at age 27 last year, Martinez was the first catcher taken in some drafts this year. Now he's keeping teammate Aaron Boone company in terrible-dom at .209/6/21. Unlike Boone, however, I do not think Martinez is a lost cause. A lot of young hitters experience a swoon after their initial success but make adjustments and bounce back. Will the bounce back be this year or next? Tough call. I look for Martinez to continue puttering along until the break and then rebound with a strong second half. If he’s your #1, I suggest keeping him around but bringing in a placeholder like Toby Hall to keep him from hurting your numbers too much. Prediction: .260/17/75
posted by skygoblue @ 2:26 PM
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