Controversy Carpet-bagging

It seems that in fantasy sports, everyone has certain players that under no circumstances will they allow on their team. It could be related to performance issues, durability issues, or even just a personal dislike. For me, Kenny Rogers qualified on both A and C. Though generally effective, Rogers has never posted the high strikeout totals I seek and has consistently posted some of the most run-support inflated win totals in baseball. On an emotional level, I will never be able to forget Rogers’ inability to justify his massive Yankee contract, nor to forgive his walking in a postseason-ending run as a member of the Mets.

That being the case, you’d think that I’d be reveling in the fact that Rogers was recently hit with a 20 game suspension. Strangely though, it has had the opposite effect. For the first time ever, I am actually suggesting owners consider acquiring Kenny Rogers.

No, I haven’t gone crazy, and no, I haven’t been fooled by his sparkling ERA and nine wins. For my money, Rogers is still only a slightly better than average starting pitcher. He has a very pedestrian 47 Ks in 106.1 IP, and his 1.25 WHIP is only a shade better than the league average 1.38. So why him, and why now?

As the season drags on more and more pitchers start dropping, and replacement options are limited mostly to journeymen and late-season call-ups. Rogers is a better option than either. He is not going to strike people out and he despite his early season performance, he is not going to be a shutdown pitcher, but he is going to eat innings and produce wins. At the moment though, he is going to be available, and you will not be able to boost your SP depth as much for as little. Rogers has been pitching over his head and is now going to miss four starts. I’m sure some owners will release him outright, while others will be more than willing to trade him for even the smallest value. If you can handle him eating a roster spot for a month, make the deal. Even assuming his ERA normalizes and rises a full run in the second half, how many SPs are available at this point in the year who can be counted on for 6-8 second half wins and a ERA around 4? And remember, fatigue will not be an issue.

Obviously, if you are not in a deep league you should be able to find someone of similar value, but in deep mixed leagues or AL only, it is worth looking into picking up Kenny Rogers on the cheap.

As long as I’m going out on a limb and recommending taking a flyer on a player I can’t stand, I might as well climb out even further, right? Yes, I’m going to suggest considering a player who is so repugnant to fantasy owners that I am basically putting my self-proclaimed-genius status on the line. That’s right ladies and gentlemen (ok, I’ll be realistic; just gentlemen) I’m telling you to think about taking a chance on …Jason Giambi.

Now I want to make clear: I’m not suggesting you run out and drop Mark Teixiera for the Giambino. He is not a 40 HR guy, probably not a 30 HR guy, and possibly not even a 25 HR guy. But since he has gotten his timing back (remember, last year was a parasite and injury ravaged washout for Giambi), Giambi has proven that he is a legitimate major league hitter with a top-level batting eye and patience. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, Giambi would currently rank 5th in the AL in OBP, and he has boosted his average more than 60 points since May 9th. The power is still sporadic at best, but his OPS of .815 puts him in the same neighborhood as Richie Sexson and Hank Blalock, and 30 points up on Ichiro.

So what does this all mean? It means that unlike last year and the first few months of this year, having Giambi in your lineup will not hurt you. If you’re considering picking him up as your starting 1B, you should probably just start thinking about the football season, but if you need a place-filler (Nick Johnson owners, perhaps) or an extra bat on your bench, he is worth a look. At the very least, he’s a legit major league hitter who will help your OPS while providing little else. At best, he could continue his .300ish ways of the past month while rediscovering the 20-30 HR power stroke he showed before his numbers (and muscles) exploded. Either way, he’s worth a look, as long as you can handle the abuse you will inevitably take on your league’s message board.

The King is Dead!?!?!?!

Quick pop quiz for ya': who was the most dominant hitter, starting pitcher, and closer last year? If you said Pujols, Santana, and Lidge, quiet yourself. The answer I was looking for is Bonds, Johnson, and Gagne. Yes, a scant 9 months ago Barry was possibly the most feared hitter of all time, Johnson was historically good for a historically bad team, and Gagne in the 9th was as sure a thing as you could find in all of sports.

Flash forward to the present, however, and you are left with three Airbus sized alabatrosses. What is an owner to do?

Since I first conceived this topic, Gagne has made 1/3 of the discussion moot by announcing that he is undergoing season-ending surgery. As a result, I'm going to take that rare step of offering a 100% guaranteed suggestion: drop him and hope that whoever owned Yhency Brazoban quick-trigger released him when he stopped closing. While you're at it, you might want to also work hard at forgetting what round you drafted Gagne, or who you traded for him, or who you let go to keep him. To read more about what to do with Gagne, check out Dennis' post - Gagne... So Now What?

As for the other two, good luck getting a straight answer from me. Chemicals be damned, Bonds is a superior enough hitter that it is a near-certainty that he will produce at a high level within a short period of his return (though a week or two of adjustment is to be expected). When that will be, however, is impossible to tell. Your guess is as good as mine is as good as the Giants front office's. For Bonds owners, the only advice I can give is to evaluate your roster before making any moves. If you are relatively healthy and do not need the roster spot, by all means, hold onto him. The potential reward far outweighs the minor inconvenience. With so many injuries around the majors, however, DL spots are growing more and more valuable, and keeping someone who is probably 50/50 to play this year is a giant risk. If your players are dropping like the proverbial flies, though, it is time to look into trading him. Market value is probably all but impossible, but if you get any sort of respectable offer, I recommend pulling the trigger. Could you get burned and look like a humungous idiot? Yes, but you could also be getting valuable players and roster flexibility for a guy who won't even play.

Then there's the big guy. I was so sure Johnson was going to be fine. He's older now, which means a longer adjustment period at the beginning of the year, plus he didn't have the Arizona heat to keep him loose in April and May. Once the velocity came back though, I figured the command and the dominance would follow in short order, and his start last week seemed to bear that out. But then he all but died on the mound against Tampa last night, offering up a start that ranks among the worst of his career. For those not from the area, let me assure you: last night was NOT a cold New York night. It was hot, it was humid, and it was filled with hard hit baseballs. I think it may be time to face the fact that Johnson is not going to dominate consistently this month, and maybe not this year. My advice? Treat Johnson like any other boom-or-bust starter and find someone who's convinced he's one start away from putting it all together. I wouldn't accept a significantly below-market offer for him like I might with Bonds, but I also would not consider him the untradeable object he was just a few months ago.

So You Drafted a Stiff...(part 1)

Before the season began in one of my leagues, a competitor and I made the rare trade in which both sides got a player they really wanted. He got Hideki Matsui, I got Oliver Perez, and everyone was happy. Flash forward a few months and Hideki was putting up Kaz numbers, while Perez appeared to have lost all semblance of command. It looked like a classic case of garbage in, garbage out.

In the past few weeks, things have started looking up for both. Perez has started throwing like he did last year, when he was the hottest young lefty not named Johan Santana, and Matsui just wrapped up a 5 for 11 series with 2 HR (including one off Perez. d’oh!). The mixed-metaphor question remains, however, whether they’ve righted the ship or are simply in the eye of the hurricane. With that in mind, I’m going to look at 12 players who haven’t produced to preseason expectations, 6 hitters this week and 6 pitchers next week, beginning with the aforementioned Matsui.

Hideki Matsui- Last year Hideki hit 31 HR. As of June 13th this year, he had 4. Where’s the beef? Preseason, it was trendy to predict that Matsui’s jump from 16 to 31 HR was an indicator of bigger things to come, but seeing plenty of Yankees games, I disagreed. Matsui has decent power, but he does not have a classic power swing and tends to slump when he tries to use one. Expect his recent surge to continue, but don’t look for a massive second half turnaround. Prediction: .290/24/110

Juan Pierre- When I drafted this year, I made Carl Crawford a priority. Besides being a premier base-stealer, he also has burgeoning power potential, as evidenced by his 46 extra-base hits last year. It seems that Pierre also noticed this, and has tried to duplicate it, but as Yogi said, don’t copy what you can’t imitate. As Florida’s lineup comes around, Pierre’s runs will come more frequently, but until he remembers that he’s a single hitter, .300 will continue to be a long way off, and SBs and R will be his only contribution to your lineup. Prediction: .275/105 R/45 SB

Jim Thome- Thome did do a stint on the DL, but as anyone who drafted him knows, he’s been pretty much worthless when he has played. Injury rust or sudden aging? I saw a Baseball Tonight where they suggested the latter, but I think Thome will be fine. He’s still hitting below his weight with only 5 HR, but he looked like the old Thome (as opposed to an old Thome) in a recent 5 game stretch, accumulating 6 H, 2 HR, and 5 RBI. Thome has always been the type of hitter who goes on homer binges, and his long-awaited first one of the season should be coming any week now. It’s too late to put up his standard 40+, but try and buy low and look for a big second half. Prediction: .260/32/90

Aaron Boone- A preseason favorite for comeback player of the year, Boone is not only worse than he was last year, but he’s been one of the most ineffective hitters in the major leagues. Will he finish below .200? No, he’s more talented than that. Will he meet those expectations of a big comeback season? Sorry, but no, and I’m not really sure why they were there to begin with. Boone is mediocre and if you look at his career stats, he pretty much always has been. Seems like a good guy and gave me the thrill of a sporting life (yeah, I was there) but if he’s on your roster he’s wasting space. Prediction: .235/16/65

Mike Lowell- Every year, Lowell starts out red hot before wilting horribly in the Florida heat. Fortunately, he will not have a big fall-off this summer. Unfortunately, that’s because he’s been atrocious so far this year. Three HR? Seriously? The good news is that Lowell has boosted his average 30 points in the month of June, but the inevitable bad news is that he’s only up to .237. Some improvement should be coming for a guy who went .293/28/85 last year, if only because it seems impossible for a hitter to go that bad that quick. Still, he’s looked so bad this year I just can’t see a big time turn around. If he can avoid falling off the table again, Lowell’s worth a look as an injury-replacement, but if he’s your starter you need to upgrade. Prediction: .255/16/75

Victor Martinez- After a .283/23/108 season at age 27 last year, Martinez was the first catcher taken in some drafts this year. Now he's keeping teammate Aaron Boone company in terrible-dom at .209/6/21. Unlike Boone, however, I do not think Martinez is a lost cause. A lot of young hitters experience a swoon after their initial success but make adjustments and bounce back. Will the bounce back be this year or next? Tough call. I look for Martinez to continue puttering along until the break and then rebound with a strong second half. If he’s your #1, I suggest keeping him around but bringing in a placeholder like Toby Hall to keep him from hurting your numbers too much. Prediction: .260/17/75